Automated CT biomarkers for opportunistic prediction of future cardiovascular events and mortality in an asymptomatic screening population: a retrospective cohort study

Autor: Perry J Pickhardt, ProfMD, Peter M Graffy, MPH, Ryan Zea, MS, Scott J Lee, MD, Jiamin Liu, PhD, Veit Sandfort, MD, Ronald M Summers, ProfMD
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: The Lancet: Digital Health, Vol 2, Iss 4, Pp e192-e200 (2020)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2589-7500
DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30025-X
Popis: Summary: Background: Body CT scans are frequently done for a wide range of clinical indications, but potentially valuable biometric information typically goes unused. We aimed to compare the prognostic ability of automated CT-based body composition biomarkers derived from previously developed deep-learning and feature-based algorithms with that of clinical parameters (Framingham risk score [FRS] and body-mass index [BMI]) for predicting major cardiovascular events and overall survival in an adult screening cohort. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, mature and fully automated CT-based algorithms with predefined metrics for quantifying aortic calcification, muscle density, ratio of visceral to subcutaneous fat, liver fat, and bone mineral density were applied to a generally healthy asymptomatic outpatient cohort of adults aged 18 years or older undergoing abdominal CT for routine colorectal cancer screening. To assess the association between the predictive measures (CT-based vs FRS and BMI) and downstream adverse events (death or myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accident, or congestive heart failure subsequent to CT scanning), we used both an event-free survival analysis and logistic regression to compute receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) . Findings: 9223 people (mean age 57·1 years [SD 7·8]; 5152 [56%] women and 4071 [44%] men) who underwent CT scans between April, 2004, and December, 2016, were included in this analysis. In the longitudinal clinical follow-up (median 8·8 years [IQR 5·1–11·6]), subsequent major cardiovascular events or death occurred in 1831 (20%) patients. Significant differences were observed for all five automated CT-based body composition measures according to adverse events (p
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