| Autor: |
Arnaud Godin, Yiqing Xia, David L Buckeridge, Sharmistha Mishra, Dirk Douwes-Schultz, Yannan Shen, Maxime Lavigne, Mélanie Drolet, Alexandra M Schmidt, Marc Brisson, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol 102, Iss , Pp 254-259 (2021) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
1201-9712 |
| DOI: |
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.046 |
| Popis: |
Objective: The North American coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) epidemic exhibited distinct early trajectories. In Canada, Quebec had the highest COVID-19 burden and its earlier March school break, taking place two weeks before those in other provinces, could have shaped early transmission dynamics. Methods: We combined a semi-mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with detailed surveillance data from Quebec and Ontario (initially accounting for 85% of Canadian cases) to explore the impact of case importation and timing of control measures on cumulative hospitalizations. Results: A total of 1544 and 1150 cases among returning travelers were laboratory-confirmed in Quebec and Ontario, respectively (symptoms onset ≤03-25-2020). Hospitalizations could have been reduced by 55% (95% CrI: 51%–59%) if no cases had been imported after Quebec’s March break. However, if Quebec had experienced Ontario’s number of introductions, hospitalizations would have only been reduced by 12% (95% CrI: 8%–16%). Early public health measures mitigated the epidemic spread as a one-week delay could have resulted in twice as many hospitalizations (95% CrI: 1.7–2.1). Conclusion: Beyond introductions, factors such as public health preparedness, responses and capacity could play a role in explaining interprovincial differences. In a context where regions are considering lifting travel restrictions, coordinated strategies and proactive measures are to be considered. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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