| Autor: |
Ke Ma, Xin Lin, Lin Zhao, Na Jia, Jingyuan Wang, Xiaoming Cui, Yuhao Zhou, Runze Ye, Jia-Fu Jiang, Baogui Jiang, Zhang Xiong, HongHao Shi, Wuchun Cao |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
BMJ Open, Vol 11, Iss 9 (2021) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2044-6055 |
| DOI: |
10.1136/bmjopen-2020-047227 |
| Popis: |
Objective To evaluate epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak resurged in Beijing and to assess the effects of three non-pharmaceutical interventions.Design Descriptive and modelling study based on surveillance data of COVID-19 in Beijing.Setting Outbreak in Beijing.Participants The database included 335 confirmed cases of COVID-19.Methods To conduct spatiotemporal analyses of the outbreak, we collected individual records on laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 11 June 2020 to 5 July 2020 in Beijing, and visitor flow and products transportation data of Xinfadi Wholesale Market. We also built a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed model to investigate the effect of interventions deployed in Beijing.Results We found that the staff working in the market (52.2%) and the people around 10 km to this epicentre (72.5%) were most affected, and the population mobility entering-exiting Xinfadi Wholesale Market significantly contributed to the spread of COVID-19 (p=0.021), but goods flow of the market had little impact on the virus spread (p=0.184). The prompt identification of Xinfadi Wholesale Market as the infection source could have avoided a total of 25 708 (95% CI 13 657 to 40 625) cases if unnoticed transmission lasted for a month. Based on the model, we found that active screening on targeted population by nucleic acid testing alone had the most significant effect.Conclusions The non-pharmaceutical interventions deployed in Beijing, including localised lockdown, close-contact tracing and community-based testing, were proved to be effective enough to contain the outbreak. Beijing has achieved an optimal balance between epidemic containment and economic protection. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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