| Autor: |
Gergely Röst, Ferenc A. Bartha, Norbert Bogya, Péter Boldog, Attila Dénes, Tamás Ferenci, Krisztina J. Horváth, Attila Juhász, Csilla Nagy, Tamás Tekeli, Zsolt Vizi, Beatrix Oroszi |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2020 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Viruses, Vol 12, Iss 7, p 708 (2020) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
1999-4915 |
| DOI: |
10.3390/v12070708 |
| Popis: |
COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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