| Autor: |
Robert F Breiman, Luke Nyakarahuka, Marianne Mureithi, Eric Osoro, Silvia Situma, Evans Omondi, Marshal Mutinda Mweu, Matthew Muturi, Athman Mwatondo, Jeanette Dawa, Limbaso Konongoi, Samoel Khamadi, Erin Clancey, Eric Lofgren, Isaac Ngere, Barnabas Bakamutumaho, Allan Muruta, John Gachohi, Samuel O Oyola, M Kariuki Njenga, Deepti Singh |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2024 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
BMJ Global Health, Vol 9, Iss 6 (2024) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2059-7908 |
| DOI: |
10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014737 |
| Popis: |
Background Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterising recent RVF disease events in East Africa.Methods Data on 100 disease events (2008–2022) from Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modelled against possible geoecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980 and 2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern.Results Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1–3) and three livestock cases (IQR, 2–7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR, 0–1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geoecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1°C increase in temperature and a 1-unit increase in NDVI, one months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1, 1.2) and 1.93 (95% CI 1.01, 3.71), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed a significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12–0.3°C/decade, p |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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