Incorporating decadal climate variability information in the operation and design of water infrastructure

Autor: J. Rolf Olsen, Vikram M. Mehta, Harvey Hill
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: Water Policy, Vol 23, Iss S1, Pp 232-249 (2021)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1366-7017
1996-9759
DOI: 10.2166/wp.2021.267
Popis: The high thermal and mechanical inertia of the oceans results in slow changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Changes in SSTs, in turn, can impact atmospheric circulation including water vapor transport, precipitation, and temperatures throughout the world. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic SST gradient variability, and the West Pacific Warm Pool are patterns of natural climate variability that tend to persist over decadal time periods. There are current efforts to produce decadal climate predictions, but there is limited understanding if this information can be used in water resources management. Understanding the current state of decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and the probability of persisting in that state may be useful information for water managers. This information could improve forecasts that aid operations and short-term planning for reservoir management, domestic and industrial water supplies, flood risk management, energy production, recreation, inland navigation, and irrigation. If conditions indicate a higher likelihood of drought, reservoir managers could reduce flood storage space and increase storage for conservation purposes. Improved forecasts for irrigation could result in greater efficiencies by shifting crops and rotational crop patterns. The potential benefits of using a forecast must be balanced against the risk of damages if the forecast is wrong. Seasonal forecasts using DCV information could also be used to inform drought triggers. If DCV indices indicate that the climate has a higher probability of dry conditions, drought contingency plans could be triggered earlier. Understanding of DCV phenomena could also improve long-range water resources planning. DCV can manifest itself in relatively short-term hydrologic records as linear trends that complicate hydrologic frequency analysis, which has traditionally assumed that hydrologic records are stationary. HIGHLIGHTS Knowledge of the current phase of decadal climate variability (DCV) indices and the probability of persisting in that state may be useful information for water managers for seasonal forecasts.; DCV information could inform the allocation of flood storage and conservation storage spaces in reservoirs, but the potential use of DCV information depends on the risk if the forecasts are wrong.; Analysis of DCV phenomena could help explain trends and breakpoints in nonstationary flood frequency analysis.;
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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