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Electricity supply is one of the critical issues in the energy field. Due to the high shares of greenhouse gases emissions, the electricity sector is experiencing a transition towards a progressively wider use of low-carbon technologies. At the same time, electrification of end-use sectors is identified as one of the most suitable mitigation strategies, although requiring larger electricity production. This paper relates the historical development trends for installed capacity of electricity production technologies to the theory of the S-curves, building a method to depict plausible developments in the electricity sector. Projections are performed considering the existence of an upper limit for industrial capacity development, and according to a path envisaging a revolutionary, an evolutionary and a maturity phase for technologies showing considerable growth trends. Oppositely, stagnation is taken into account for those not showing any remarkable progress. The computed curves are used to perform forecasts about electricity generation potentials until 2050, showing how the projected growth trend of electricity generation technologies would result in a production sufficient to meet the expected global demand, even excluding the contribution of fossil fuels in some cases. In perspective, the presented method can be applied to retrieve maximum capacity constraints for energy system models. |
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