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Introduction. Taking into account the relevance of aviation incidents that occur as a result of strikes (collisions) with birds entering the flight zone of an aircraft (AV) and a posteriori analysis of these events, the article considers and tests parametric models and criteria for the implementation of accidents.Problem Statement. Based on the well-known fuzzy parametric model "load p - carrying capacity σ", the problem of finding a possible (fuzzy) measure of damage to the aircraft and (or) the pilot in a collision with birds with varying mass and speed of the bird, as well as the area and duration of contact on impact is posed. The results of its solution are aimed at justifying the ornithological safety of flights by developing proactive actions to scare away and avoid areas of bird congestion both during takeoff and landing, and on the route of the vessel.Theoretical Part. To describe and evaluate the following events (outcomes): 1) damage; 2) destruction; 3) fall of the aircraft, the well-known mechanical criterion of exceeding the load over the load-bearing capacity was applied. At the same time, the parameters of the load p and the carrying capacity а were described as fuzzy values, which allowed us to find the values of the probability measure (as a subjective probability) of the implementation of outcomes in conditions of even insufficient statistics. The load parameter is represented as amplitude pressure pulse during impact and the collision of birds with an aircraft as a function of calculating the variation of the mass of birds, speed of mutual rapprochement of the bird and the ship, the duration of the impact and the area of contact of the bird with the vessel: p=mv/(Δt∙ζ) (scientific results 1). Based on the data obtained on the values of cores and fuzzy intervals of load capacity, as well as data on the values of cores and fuzzy intervals of the pressure amplitude in the impact, a possible measure of each of the accident outcomes was calculated (scientific result 2).Conclusion. When a bird strikes with a mass of at least 1 kg and at a mutual speed equal to or greater than 50 m/s, the destruction of the fuselage will occur with a probability measure of 1.0, and when the pilot is exposed to the fuselage fragments, it may hurt him and the ship may fall. With the help of the obtained scientific results, a unified and reliable insurance basis for the ornithological flight risk is achievable. |
