| Autor: |
Jürgen Grieser, Steve Jewson |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2012 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 79-88 (2012) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
0941-2948 |
| DOI: |
10.1127/0941-2948/2012/0265 |
| Popis: |
Tropical-cyclone rain causes inland flooding, land-slides and mud-slides, and these perils are a risk for human life and property in areas prone to tropical cyclones. We describe a parameterized tropical-cyclone rain model which is simple enough to be run several hundred thousand times and hence can be used to estimate these risks. The model is based on climatological off-shore rain rates parameterized by R-CLIPER, but with a number of important improvements: the model takes into account rain enhancement due to orography and landfall; rain rates are spatially distributed to match the asymmetry of observed tropical cyclone rain, including rain bands and the effects of extratropical transition, and rain drift is parameterized as a function of wind speed. The model is calibrated with respect to observations of 358 US-landfalling tropical cyclones during the period 1948 to 2007. Although not designed for forecasting the model is then used to forecast the rainfall for six US-landfalling tropical cyclones in 2008 (the most recent active season) as an independent test. A statistical track set consisting of tracks of North-Atlantic tropical cyclones covering 100,000 years is used in order to estimate maps of return levels of tropical cyclone rain for the US mainland. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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