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Abstract Raptors face global threats like electrocution, collisions, and habitat fragmentation. Many species remain understudied, and their distribution patterns are unknown. Understanding their current and future distribution is crucial for conservation. Protecting these top predators requires knowledge of their spatial distribution and environmental influences. This study addresses knowledge gaps in raptor habitats and distributions in Kenya, considering current and future climate changes. Using species distribution models and occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, we evaluated suitable habitats for four endangered Kenyan raptor species: Martial eagle, Secretarybird, Bateleur, and Steppe Eagle. We assessed the impact of climatic predictors on their distribution, considering two climate change scenarios for 2020–2040. Our findings reveal that raptor distribution in Kenya is predominantly concentrated in the southwestern region, extending into the central region of the country. The most significant predictors of raptor species distribution varied for each species, with Steppe eagle and Secretarybird being highly influenced by precipitation during the warmest quarter, Martial eagle being influenced by mean temperature during the driest quarter, and Bateleur being primarily influenced by precipitation during the coldest quarter. When projecting our model into the climate change scenarios for 2020–2040, all species except the Bateleur exhibited a negative range shift. The results of our study suggest that climate change may have adverse impacts on the raptor species examined. In light of these findings, we recommend implementing targeted monitoring and conducting surveys in accordance with our current model predictions. Specifically, our focus should be on monitoring areas that exhibit the highest climate suitability, as these areas are likely to undergo significant shifts in the near future. By conducting regular monitoring and engaging in further research, we can enhance our understanding of these raptor species and gather valuable data to improve the accuracy and reliability of our model predictions. |
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