Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts
| Autor: | Andrew Gelman, Jessica Hullman, Christopher Wlezien, George Elliott Morris |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Judgment and Decision Making, Vol 15, Pp 863-880 (2020) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 19302975 1930-2975 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/S1930297500007981 |
| Popis: | Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these “knowns” about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast calibration and communication. We highlight how incentives may shape forecasts, and particularly forecast uncertainty, in light of calibration challenges. We illustrate these challenges in creating, communicating, and evaluating election predictions, using the Economist and Fivethirtyeight forecasts of the 2020 election as examples, and offer recommendations for forecasters and scholars. |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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