Machine‐Learning Based Identification of the Critical Driving Factors Controlling Storm‐Time Outer Radiation Belt Electron Flux Dropouts

Autor: Man Hua, Jacob Bortnik, Donglai Ma
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1944-8007
0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL108268
Popis: Abstract Understanding and forecasting outer radiation belt electron flux dropouts is one of the top concerns in space physics. By constructing Support Vector Machine (SVM) models to predict storm‐time dropouts for both relativistic and ultra‐relativistic electrons over L = 4.0–6.0, we investigate the nonlinear correlations between various driving factors (model inputs) and dropouts (model output) and rank their relative importance. Only time series of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters are adopted as model inputs. A comparison of the performance of the SVM models that uses only one driving factor at a time enables us to identify the most informative parameter and its optimal length of time history. Its accuracy and the ability to correctly predict dropouts identifies the SYM‐H index as the governing factor at L = 4.0–4.5, while solar wind parameters dominate the dropouts at higher L‐shells (L = 6.0). Our SVM model also gives good prediction of dropouts during completely out‐of‐sample storms.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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