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Abstract Background Lung hyperinflation contributes to dyspnea, morbidity and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The inspiratory-to-total lung capacity (IC/TLC) ratio is a measure of lung hyperinflation and is associated with exercise intolerance. However, knowledge of its effect on longitudinal change in the 6-min walk distance (6MWD) in patients with COPD is scarce. We aimed to study whether the IC/TLC ratio predicts longitudinal change in 6MWD in patients with COPD. Methods This prospective cohort study included 389 patients aged 40–75 years with clinically stable COPD in Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stages II-IV. The 6MWD was measured at baseline, and after one and 3 years. We performed generalized estimating equation regression analyses to examine predictors for longitudinal change in 6MWD. Predictors at baseline were: IC/TLC ratio, age, gender, pack years, fat mass index (FMI), fat-free mass index (FFMI), number of exacerbations within 12 months prior to inclusion, Charlson index for comorbidities, forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), and light and hard self-reported physical activity. Results Reduced IC/TLC ratio (p |