Predicting early mortality in hemodialysis patients: a deep learning approach using a nationwide prospective cohort in South Korea

Autor: Junhyug Noh, Sun Young Park, Wonho Bae, Kangil Kim, Jang-Hee Cho, Jong Soo Lee, Shin-Wook Kang, Yong-Lim Kim, Yon Su Kim, Chun Soo Lim, Jung Pyo Lee, Kyung Don Yoo
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Scientific Reports, Vol 14, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-80900-6
Popis: Abstract Early mortality after hemodialysis (HD) initiation significantly impacts the longevity of HD patients. This study aimed to quantify the effect sizes of risk factors on mortality using various machine learning approaches. A cohort of 3284 HD patients from the CRC-ESRD (2008–2014) was analyzed. Mortality risk models were validated using logistic regression, ridge regression, lasso regression, and decision trees, as well as ensemble methods like bagging and random forest. To better handle missing data and time-series variables, a recurrent neural network (RNN) with an autoencoder was also developed. Additionally, survival models predicting hazard ratios were employed using survival analysis techniques. The analysis included 1750 prevalent and 1534 incident HD patients (mean age 58.4 ± 13.6 years, 59.3% male). Over a median follow-up of 66.2 months, the overall mortality rate was 19.3%. Random forest models achieved an AUC of 0.8321 for first-year mortality prediction, which was further improved by the RNN with autoencoder (AUC 0.8357). The survival bagging model had the highest hazard ratio predictability (C-index 0.7756). A shorter dialysis duration (
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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