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The current understanding of the causes of land-use change is dominated by simplifications, which in turn, underline many environment-development policies that led to unsustainable situation in Gaza City. Therefore, this research aims at establishing an integrated land-use management framework for Gaza city based on cause-effect relationship within sustainability context. It also aims at establishing a prediction model for the relationship between the most influential socio-economic, environmental and institutional indicators that had shaped the current land-use status of the city for the period 1967-2003. The methodology presented in this research work, offers opportunities to simulate the future demand of the different land-uses based upon actual land-use conditions and other determinant factors. The determinant variables of land-use changes have been identified and prioritized using statistical analysis and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The results were compared with other statistical techniques and expert opinions. ANN prediction model helped in drawing scenarios for future development. Combinations of socio-economic, environmental and institutional variables in addition to the actual land use for the last four years are used as a basis of land-use change explanations and modeling. These pathways indicate that land-use policies and projections for the future must not only capture the population indicators as the only drivers for land-use change but also account for the specific human resource development indicators and urban-environmental conditions. This recognition requires moving beyond some of the simplifications that persist in much of the current understanding of the causes of land-use change and its driving forces. The analysis of the local expert’s opinions provide evidence support the conclusion that the simple answers found in population growth, poverty and infrastructure rarely provide an adequate explanations of land-use changes. Rather, social responses follow from changing economic conditions, mediated by institutional factors are the real causes for land-use changes in Gaza. |
