Mathematical Modeling and Transmission Dynamics Analysis of the African Swine Fever Virus in Benin

Autor: Sèna Yannick Ayihou, Têlé Jonas Doumatè, Cedric Hameni Nkwayep, Samuel Bowong Tsakou, Romain Glèlè Kakai
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Mathematics, Vol 12, Iss 11, p 1749 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2227-7390
82154910
DOI: 10.3390/math12111749
Popis: African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in many African countries, and its control is challenging because no vaccine or treatment is available to date. Nowadays, mathematical modeling is a key tool in infectious disease studies, complementing traditional biological investigations. In this study, we propose and analyze a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of African swine fever (ASF) in Benin that considers the free-living virus in the environment. We provide the theoretical results of the model. The study of the model is conducted by first proving that the model is well posed by showing the positivity and the boundedness of solutions as well as the existence and uniqueness of the solution. We compute the control reproduction number Rc as well as the basic reproduction number R0, which helps to analyze the extinction or the persistence of the disease in the pig population. We provide the global attractivity of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium and study their stabilities. After, we estimate some unknown parameters from the proposed model, and the sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the parameters that influence the control reproduction number. Finally, through numerical simulations, in the current situation, we find that R0=2.78, which implies that the disease will not die out without any control measures and Rc=1.55 showing that the eradication of the disease highly depends on the control measures taken to reduce disease transmission.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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