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Yumei Zhang,1,* Xin Li,1,* Suning Zhang,2 Wei Chen,3 Jianxin Lu,1 Yingxin Xie,1 Shengbin Wu,1 Feng Zhuang,1 Xiao Bi,1 Mingzi Chu,1 Feng Wang,1 Yemin Huang,1 Feng Ding,1 Chun Hu,1 Yu Pan1 1Division of Nephrology, Shanghai Ninth People’s Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 2Division of Emergency, Shanghai Ninth People’s Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 3Division of Neurology, Shanghai Ninth People’s Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Yu Pan; Chun Hu, Division of Nephrology, Shanghai Ninth People’s Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 201900, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-021-56691101, Email panyu1980@163.com; spring_115@hotmail.comBackground: Since little is known about the acute kidney injury (AKI) in aging population infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, we investigated the incidence, clinical features, risk factors and mid-term outcomes of AKI in hospitalized geriatric patients with and without COVID-19 and established a prediction model for mortality.Methods: A real-time data from the Shanghai Ninth People’s Hospital information system of inpatients with COVID-19 from 1 April 2022 to 30 June 2022 were extracted. Clinical spectrum, laboratory results, and clinical prognosis were included for the risk analyses. Moreover, Cox and Lasso regression analyses were applied to predict the 90-day death and a nomogram was established.Results: A total of 1607 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients were enrolled; hypertension was the most common comorbidity, followed by chronic cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and lung disease. Most of the participants were non-vaccinated and the mean age of patients was 82.6 years old (range, 60– 103 years). The AKI incidence was higher in relatively older patients (16.29% vs 3.63% in patients older than 80 years and 60 to 80 years, respectively). Linear regression models identified some variables associated with the incidence of AKI, such as older age, clinical spectrum, D-dimer level, number of comorbidities, baseline eGFR, and antibiotic or corticosteroid treatment. In this cohort, 11 patients died in-hospital and 21 patients died at 90-day follow-up. The predictive nomogram of 90-day death achieved a good C-index of 0.823 by using 5 predictor variables: ICU admission, D-dimer, peak of serum creatinine, rate of serum creatinine decline and white blood cell count (WBC).Conclusion: Older age, clinical spectrum, D-dimer level, number of comorbidities, baseline eGFR, and antibiotic or corticosteroid treatment are clinical risk factors for the incidence of AKI in geriatric COVID-19 patients. The prediction nomogram achieved an excellent performance at the prediction of 90-day mortality.Keywords: COVID-19, Omicron, acute kidney injury, aging, predictive nomogram |
