Autor: |
Md. Rezuanul Islam, Chia-Ying Lee, Kyle T. Mandli, Hiroshi Takagi |
Jazyk: |
angličtina |
Rok vydání: |
2021 |
Předmět: |
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Zdroj: |
Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021) |
Druh dokumentu: |
article |
ISSN: |
2045-2322 |
DOI: |
10.1038/s41598-021-95825-7 |
Popis: |
Abstract This study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced peak surge levels at a coast. The SSHPI incorporates parameters that are often readily available at real-time: intensity in 10-min maximum wind speed, radius of 50-kt wind, translation speed, coastal geometry, and bathymetry information. The inclusion of translation speed and coastal geometry information lead to improvements of the SSHPI to other existing surge indices. A retrospective analysis of SSHPI using data from 1978–2019 in Japan suggests that this index captures historical events reasonably well. In particular, it explains ~ 66% of the observed variance and ~ 74% for those induced by TCs whose landfall intensity was larger than 79-kt. The performance of SSHPI is not sensitive to the type of coastal geometry (open coasts or semi-enclosed bays). Such a prediction methodology can decrease numerical computation requirements, improve public awareness of surge hazards, and may also be useful for communicating surge risk. |
Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
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