Foreshocks and short-term hazard assessment of large earthquakes using complex networks: the case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake
| Autor: | E. Daskalaki, K. Spiliotis, C. Siettos, G. Minadakis, G. A. Papadopoulos |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 23, Iss 4, Pp 241-256 (2016) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 1023-5809 1607-7946 |
| DOI: | 10.5194/npg-23-241-2016 |
| Popis: | The monitoring of statistical network properties could be useful for the short-term hazard assessment of the occurrence of mainshocks in the presence of foreshocks. Using successive connections between events acquired from the earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for the case of the L'Aquila (Italy) mainshock (Mw = 6.3) of 6 April 2009, we provide evidence that network measures, both global (average clustering coefficient, small-world index) and local (betweenness centrality) ones, could potentially be exploited for forecasting purposes both in time and space. Our results reveal statistically significant increases in the topological measures and a nucleation of the betweenness centrality around the location of the epicenter about 2 months before the mainshock. The results of the analysis are robust even when considering either large or off-centered the main event space windows. |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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