| Autor: |
Alkema, Leontine, Susmann, Herbert, Ray, Evan, Mooney, Shauna, Cahill, Niamh, Bietsch, Kristin, Jayachandran, A. A., Kagimu, Rogers, Emmart, Priya, Mujani, Zenon, Muhammad, Khan, Muzavazi, Brighton, Rosenberg, Rebecca, Stover, John, Sonneveldt, Emily |
| Rok vydání: |
2024 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Druh dokumentu: |
Working Paper |
| Popis: |
The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is used in low- and middle-income countries to produce estimates and short-term forecasts of family planning indicators, such as modern contraceptive use and unmet need for contraceptives. Estimates are obtained via a Bayesian statistical model that is fitted to country-specific data from surveys and service statistics data. The model has evolved over the last decade based on user inputs. This paper summarizes the main features of the statistical model used in FPET and introduces recent updates related to capturing contraceptive transitions, fitting to survey data that may be error prone, and the use of service statistics data. We use our experience with FPET to discuss lessons learned and open challenges related to the broader field of statistical modeling for monitoring of demographic and global health indicators to help further optimize the application of statistical modeling in practice. |
| Databáze: |
arXiv |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
