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In this paper, we present a novel framework to synthesize robust strategies for discrete-time nonlinear systems with random disturbances that are unknown, against temporal logic specifications. The proposed framework is data-driven and abstraction-based: leveraging observations of the system, our approach learns a high-confidence abstraction of the system in the form of an uncertain Markov decision process (UMDP). The uncertainty in the resulting UMDP is used to formally account for both the error in abstracting the system and for the uncertainty coming from the data. Critically, we show that for any given state-action pair in the resulting UMDP, the uncertainty in the transition probabilities can be represented as a convex polytope obtained by a two-layer state discretization and concentration inequalities. This allows us to obtain tighter uncertainty estimates compared to existing approaches, and guarantees efficiency, as we tailor a synthesis algorithm exploiting the structure of this UMDP. We empirically validate our approach on several case studies, showing substantially improved performance compared to the state-of-the-art. |
