| Autor: |
Deas, Andrew, Fernando, Hashan, Kapadia, Anuj J, Trafton, Jodie, Spannaus, Adam, Maroulas, Vasileios |
| Rok vydání: |
2024 |
| Předmět: |
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| Druh dokumentu: |
Working Paper |
| Popis: |
This study investigates the national opioid crisis by exploring three key social and environmental drivers: opioid-related mortality rates, opioid prescription dispensing rates, and disability rank ordered rates. We introduce a spatial Kalman filter to examine each factor individually and their potential intra-relationships. This study utilizes county level data, spanning the years 2014 through 2020, on the rates of opioid-related mortality, opioid prescription dispensing, and disability. To successfully estimate and predict trends in these opioid-related socioenvironmental factors, we augment the Kalman Filter with a novel spatial component. Through this construction we analyze opioid vulnerability at the national scale, creating heat maps and a hotspot analysis. Our spatial Kalman filter demonstrates strong predictive performance. These predictions are used to uncover pronounced vulnerability profiles for both the rates of opioid-related mortality and disability, finding that the Appalachian region is likely the nation's most vulnerable area to these two factors. This contrasts with a chaotic vulnerability profile found for the dispensing rates. We suggest that the rates of opioid-related mortality and disability are connected and propose that this connection is unlikely to be found in the realm of prescription opioids. Our analysis indicates that prescription opioids are not the primary drivers of opioid-related deaths across the country. We advocate for comprehensive solutions which extend beyond limiting prescription opioids. |
| Databáze: |
arXiv |
| Externí odkaz: |
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