| Popis: |
Wind energy plays a critical role in mitigating climate change and meeting growing energy demands. However, the long-term impacts of anthropogenic warming on wind resources, particularly their seasonal variations and potential compounding risks, remain understudied. Here we analyze large-ensemble, high-resolution climate simulations to assess the projected changes in near-surface wind speed and their implications for wind energy. Our findings reveal robust wind changes including a decrease of land wind speed during the summer months in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes. This stilling is linked to amplified warming of the midlatitude land and the overlying troposphere. The potential impacts of the wind stilling are investigated with scenario-based stress testing. While the impact of wind stilling could potentially make wind energy less competitive compared to other renewable sources, the stilling will unlikely threaten the cost-competitiveness of onshore wind energy relative to fossil fuel-based electricity even in the most adverse scenario. Our analyses also show that the summertime wind stilling coincides with a projected surge in cooling demand, creating a compounding risk that can disrupt the energy supply-demand balance. These findings highlight the importance of considering the seasonal responses of wind resources and the associated compounding climate-energy risks in the warming climate. By integrating these insights into future energy planning decisions, we can better adapt to a changing climate and ensure a reliable and resilient energy future. |
