Optimal epidemic control by social distancing and vaccination of an infection structured by time since infection: the covid-19 case study
| Autor: | d'Onofrio, Alberto, Iannelli, Mimmo, Manfredi, Piero, Marinoschi, Gabriela |
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| Rok vydání: | 2024 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | SIAM J. Appl. Math, S199-S224, 2023 |
| Druh dokumentu: | Working Paper |
| DOI: | 10.1137/22M1499406 |
| Popis: | Motivated by the issue of COVID-19 mitigation, in this work we tackle the general problem of optimally controlling an epidemic outbreak of a communicable disease structured by time since exposure, by the aid of two types of control instruments namely, social distancing and vaccination by a vaccine at least partly effective in protecting from infection. Effective vaccines are assumed to be made available only in a subsequent period of the epidemic so that - in the first period - epidemic control only relies on social distancing, as it happened for the COVID-19 pandemic. By our analyses, we could prove the existence of (at least) one optimal control pair, we derived first-order necessary conditions for optimality, and proved some useful properties of such optimal solutions. A worked example provides a number of further insights on the relationships between key control and epidemic parameters. Comment: 24 pages, 2 figures |
| Databáze: | arXiv |
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