| Autor: |
Beaulieu, Claudie, Gallagher, Colin, Killick, Rebecca, Lund, Robert, Shi, Xueheng |
| Rok vydání: |
2024 |
| Předmět: |
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| Druh dokumentu: |
Working Paper |
| Popis: |
The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an acceleration in the warming rate is detectable from a statistical perspective. We use changepoint models, which are statistical techniques specifically designed for identifying structural changes in time series. Four global mean surface temperature records over 1850-2023 are scrutinized within. Our results show limited evidence for a warming surge; in most surface temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected. As such, we estimate minimum changes in the warming trend for a surge to be detectable in the near future. |
| Databáze: |
arXiv |
| Externí odkaz: |
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