Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia
| Autor: | Koundouri, Phoebe, Papayiannis, Georgios I., Vassilopoulos, Achilleas, Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N. |
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| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 2024, qnae046 |
| Druh dokumentu: | Working Paper |
| DOI: | 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae046 |
| Popis: | This study presents a novel approach to assessing food security risks at the national level, employing a probabilistic scenario-based framework that integrates both Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). This innovative method allows each scenario, encompassing socio-economic and climate factors, to be treated as a model capable of generating diverse trajectories. This approach offers a more dynamic understanding of food security risks under varying future conditions. The paper details the methodologies employed, showcasing their applicability through a focused analysis of food security challenges in Egypt and Ethiopia, and underscores the importance of considering a spectrum of socio-economic and climatic factors in national food security assessments. Comment: 39 pages, 13 figures |
| Databáze: | arXiv |
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