| Autor: |
Stürmer, Julian, Plietzsch, Anton, Vogt, Thomas, Hellmann, Frank, Kurths, Jürgen, Otto, Christian, Frieler, Katja, Anvari, Mehrnaz |
| Rok vydání: |
2023 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Druh dokumentu: |
Working Paper |
| Popis: |
The Texan electric network in the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by Tropical Cyclones (TC) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here, we introduce a new approach of combining a probabilistic line fragility model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the temporal evolution of wind-induced failures of transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical hurricanes. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to a static approach, it provides a significant advantage in identifying critical lines whose failure can trigger large supply shortages. We show that protecting only 1% of total lines can reduce the likelihood of the most destructive type of outages by a factor of between 5 and 20. The proposed modelling approach could represent a tool so far missing to effectively strengthen the power grids against future hurricane risks even under limited knowledge. |
| Databáze: |
arXiv |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
