| Autor: |
Li, Michael, Dushoff, Jonathan, Earn, David J. D., Bolker, Benjamin M. |
| Rok vydání: |
2022 |
| Předmět: |
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| Druh dokumentu: |
Working Paper |
| Popis: |
Maruotti et al. 2022 used a mark-recapture approach to estimate bounds on the true number of monkeypox infections in various countries. These approaches are fundamentally flawed; it is impossible to estimate undercounting based solely on a single stream of reported cases. Simulations based on a Richards curve for cumulative incidence show that, for reasonable epidemic parameters, the proposed methods estimate bounds on the ascertainment ratio of $\approx 0.2-0.5$ roughly independently of the true ascertainment ratio. These methods should not be used. |
| Databáze: |
arXiv |
| Externí odkaz: |
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