COVID-19 mortality prediction: A case study for \.Istanbul

Autor:	Yilmaz, Erkan, Oku, Ozgur, Aydiner, Ekrem
Rok vydání:	2022
Předmět:	Statistics - Applications Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
Druh dokumentu:	Working Paper
Popis:	In this paper, we use SEIR equations to make predictions for the number of mortality due to COVID-19 in \.Istanbul. Using excess mortality method, we find the number of mortality for the previous three waves in 2020 and 2021. We show that the predictions of our model is consistent with number of moralities for each wave. Furthermore, we predict the number of mortality for the second wave of 2021. We also extend our analysis for Germany, Italy and Turkey to compare the basic reproduction number $R_0$ for Istanbul. Finally, we calculate the number of infected people in Istanbul for herd immunity. Comment: Mortality prediction, Covid-19 study for istanbul
Databáze:	arXiv
Externí odkaz:	http://arxiv.org/abs/2201.09309 Zobrazit plný text záznamu View this record from Arxiv