From Epidemic to Pandemic Modelling
| Autor: | Connolly, Shannon, Gilbert, David, Heiner, Monika |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: | |
| Druh dokumentu: | Working Paper |
| Popis: | We present a methodology for systematically extending epidemic models to multilevel and multiscale spatio-temporal pandemic ones. Our approach builds on the use of coloured stochastic and continuous Petri nets facilitating the sound component-based extension of basic SIR models to include population stratification and also spatio-geographic information and travel connections, represented as graphs, resulting in robust stratified pandemic metapopulation models. This method is inherently easy to use, producing scalable and reusable models with a high degree of clarity and accessibility which can be read either in a deterministic or stochastic paradigm. Our method is supported by a publicly available platform PetriNuts; it enables the visual construction and editing of models; deterministic, stochastic and hybrid simulation as well as structural and behavioural analysis. All the models are available as supplementary material, ensuring reproducibility. Comment: 79 pages (with Appendix), 23 figures, 7 tables |
| Databáze: | arXiv |
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