A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries
| Autor: | Amouzouvi, Kossi, Assamagan, Kétévi A., Azote, Somiéalo, Connell, Simon H., Fankam, Jean Baptiste Fankam, Fanomezana, Fenosoa, Guga, Aluwani, Haliya, Cyrille E., Mabote, Toivo S., Macucule, Francisco Fenias, Mathebula, Dephney, Muronga, Azwinndini, Mwale, Kondwani C. C., Njeri, Ann, Onyie, Ebode F., Rakotondravohitra, Laza, Zimba, George |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Scientific African (2021) |
| Druh dokumentu: | Working Paper |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987 |
| Popis: | We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, $R_0$, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that $R_0\leq 4$ at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to $R_0 \sim 1$. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between $1-10$\% of the recovered cases. Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures and 1 table |
| Databáze: | arXiv |
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