A Bayesian Spatial Modeling Approach to Mortality Forecasting

Autor:	Liu, Zhen, Sun, Xiaoqian, Wang, Yu-Bo
Rok vydání:	2021
Předmět:	Statistics - Methodology
Druh dokumentu:	Working Paper
Popis:	This paper extends Bayesian mortality projection models for multiple populations considering the stochastic structure and the effect of spatial autocorrelation among the observations. We explain high levels of overdispersion according to adjacent locations based on the conditional autoregressive model. In an empirical study, we compare different hierarchical projection models for the analysis of geographical diversity in mortality between the Japanese counties in multiple years, according to age. By a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computation, results have demonstrated the flexibility and predictive performance of our proposed model. Comment: The corresponding author considers there is a huge drawback at the main methodology to revise in a long time and is not willing to be the duty of corresponding author. Hence, I request the publisher to withdraw this paper. Thanks
Databáze:	arXiv
Externí odkaz:	http://arxiv.org/abs/2102.11501 Zobrazit plný text záznamu View this record from Arxiv