Method to monitor the evolution of an epidemic in real time

Autor:	Trujillo, Justin, Raicu, Valerica
Rok vydání:	2020
Předmět:	Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution Physics - Physics and Society
Zdroj:	Physics Letters A, 2021
Druh dokumentu:	Working Paper
DOI:	10.1016/j.physleta.2020.127074
Popis:	The emergence of an epidemic evokes the need to monitor its spread and assess and validate any mitigation measures enacted by governments and administrative bodies in real time. We present here a method to observe and quantify this spread and the response of affected populations and governing bodies and apply it to COVID-19 as a case study. This method provides means to simultaneously track in real time quantities such as the mortality and the recovery rates as well as the number of new infections caused by an infected person. With sufficient data, this method enables thorough monitoring and assessment of an epidemic without assumptions regarding the evolution of the pandemic in the future. Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures
Databáze:	arXiv
Externí odkaz:	http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.01508 Zobrazit plný text záznamu View this record from Arxiv