Schwabe, Gleissberg, Suess-de Vries: Towards a consistent model of planetary synchronization of solar cycles
| Autor: | Stefani, F., Giesecke, A., Seilmayer, M., Stepanov, R., Weier, T. |
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| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Magnetohydrodynamics, Vol. 56, No. 2/3, pp. 269-280, 2020 |
| Druh dokumentu: | Working Paper |
| DOI: | 10.22364/mhd.56.2-3.18 |
| Popis: | Aiming at a consistent planetary synchronization model of both short-term and long-term solar cycles, we start with an analysis of Schove's historical data of cycle maxima. Their deviations (residuals) from the average cycle duration of 11.07 years show a high degree of regularity, comprising a dominant 200-year period (Suess-de Vries cycle), and a few periods around 100 years (Gleissberg cycle). Encouraged by their robustness, we support previous forecasts of an upcoming grand minimum in the 21st century. To explain the long-term cycles, we enhance our tidally synchronized solar dynamo model by a modulation of the field storage capacity of the tachocline with the orbital angular momentum of the Sun, which is dominated by the 19.86-year periodicity of the Jupiter-Saturn synodes. This modulation of the 22.14 years Hale cycle leads to a 193-year beat period of dynamo activity which is indeed close to the Suess-de Vries cycle. For stronger dynamo modulation, the model produces additional peaks at typical Gleissberg frequencies, which seem to be explainable by the non-linearities of the basic beat process, leading to a bi-modality of the Schwabe cycle. However, a complementary role of beat periods between the Schwabe cycle and the Jupiter-Uranus/Neptune synodic cycles cannot be completely excluded. Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, final version as published |
| Databáze: | arXiv |
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