Autor:	Fenner, Trevor, Levene, Mark, Loizou, George
Rok vydání:	2017
Předmět:	Physics - Physics and Society
Druh dokumentu:	Working Paper
Popis:	Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Here we propose a generative model based on a stochastic differential equation that allows us to analyse the polls leading up to the UK 2016 EU referendum. After a preliminary analysis of the time series of poll results, we provide empirical evidence that the beta distribution, which is a natural choice when modelling proportions, fits the marginal distribution of this time series. We also provide evidence of the predictive power of the proposed model. Comment: 13 pages, 2 Figures, 6 Tables
Databáze:	arXiv
Externí odkaz:	http://arxiv.org/abs/1710.03424 Zobrazit plný text záznamu View this record from Arxiv