EMBERS at 4 years: Experiences operating an Open Source Indicators Forecasting System

Autor:	Muthiah, Sathappan, Butler, Patrick, Khandpur, Rupinder Paul, Saraf, Parang, Self, Nathan, Rozovskaya, Alla, Zhao, Liang, Cadena, Jose, Lu, Chang-Tien, Vullikanti, Anil, Marathe, Achla, Summers, Kristen, Katz, Graham, Doyle, Andy, Arredondo, Jaime, Gupta, Dipak K., Mares, David, Ramakrishnan, Naren
Rok vydání:	2016
Předmět:	Computer Science - Computers and Society Computer Science - Social and Information Networks
Druh dokumentu:	Working Paper
Popis:	EMBERS is an anticipatory intelligence system forecasting population-level events in multiple countries of Latin America. A deployed system from 2012, EMBERS has been generating alerts 24x7 by ingesting a broad range of data sources including news, blogs, tweets, machine coded events, currency rates, and food prices. In this paper, we describe our experiences operating EMBERS continuously for nearly 4 years, with specific attention to the discoveries it has enabled, correct as well as missed forecasts, and lessons learnt from participating in a forecasting tournament including our perspectives on the limits of forecasting and ethical considerations. Comment: Submitted to a conference
Databáze:	arXiv
Externí odkaz:	http://arxiv.org/abs/1604.00033 Zobrazit plný text záznamu View this record from Arxiv