Evacuation time estimate for a total pedestrian evacuation using queuing network model and volunteered geographic information
| Autor: | Kunwar, Bharat, Simini, Filippo, Johansson, Anders |
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| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Phys. Rev. E 93, 032311 (2016) |
| Druh dokumentu: | Working Paper |
| DOI: | 10.1103/PhysRevE.93.032311 |
| Popis: | Estimating city evacuation time is a non-trivial problem due to the interaction between thousands of individual agents, giving rise to various collective phenomena, such as bottleneck formation, intermittent flow and stop-and-go waves. We present a mean field approach to draw relationships between road network spatial attributes, number of evacuees and resultant evacuation time estimate (ETE). We divide $50$ medium sized UK cities into a total of $697$ catchment areas which we define as an area where all agents share the same nearest exit node. In these catchment areas, 90% of agents are within $5.4$ km of their designated exit node. We establish a characteristic flow rate from catchment area attributes (population, distance to exit node and exit node width) and a mean flow rate in free-flow regime by simulating total evacuations using an agent based `queuing network' model. We use these variables to determine a relationship between catchment area attributes and resultant ETE. This relationship could enable emergency planners to make rapid appraisal of evacuation strategies and help support decisions in the run up to a crisis. Comment: 6 pages, 8 figures |
| Databáze: | arXiv |
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