Breakdown of metastable political duopoly due to asymmetry of emotions in partisan propaganda

Autor:	Sobkowicz, Pawel
Rok vydání:	2015
Předmět:	Physics - Physics and Society Computer Science - Social and Information Networks
Druh dokumentu:	Working Paper
Popis:	We present results of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) model, applied to a strongly polarized society. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities (supporting each of the opinions) of comparable size -- which corresponds to bipartisan split found in many real world communities. Spurred by the recent breakdown of such system, which existed in Poland for over 9 years, we extend the model by allowing a third opinion. We show that if the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the system may be "invaded" by a newcomer third party very quickly -- in qualitative agreement with the actual political situation in Poland in 2015. Comment: Version 2 contains updated data on the actual party support, covering June-July polls, as well as an improved treatment of the political propaganda of the parties, treating separately the effects on the support base and outside it. A better qualitative agreement of the model with the observations is achieved, as well as a discussion of possible future outcomes
Databáze:	arXiv
Externí odkaz:	http://arxiv.org/abs/1507.00126 Zobrazit plný text záznamu View this record from Arxiv