Assessment of Point Process Models for Earthquake Forecasting
| Autor: | Bray, Andrew, Schoenberg, Frederic Paik |
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| Rok vydání: | 2013 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Statistical Science 2013, Vol. 28, No. 4, 510-520 |
| Druh dokumentu: | Working Paper |
| DOI: | 10.1214/13-STS440 |
| Popis: | Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the data is typically assessed using a variety of numerical tests, which unfortunately have low power and may be misleading for model comparison purposes. Promising alternatives exist, especially residual methods such as super-thinning and Voronoi residuals. This article reviews some of these tests and residual methods for determining the goodness of fit of earthquake forecasting models. Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-STS440 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org) |
| Databáze: | arXiv |
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