Predictability and suppression of extreme events in complex systems

Autor:	Cavalcante, Hugo L. D. de Souza, Oria, Marcos, Sornette, Didier, Ott, Edward, Gauthier, Daniel J.
Rok vydání:	2013
Předmět:	Nonlinear Sciences - Chaotic Dynamics Nonlinear Sciences - Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems
Druh dokumentu:	Working Paper
DOI:	10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.198701
Popis:	In many complex systems, large events are believed to follow power-law, scale-free probability distributions, so that the extreme, catastrophic events are unpredictable. Here, we study coupled chaotic oscillators that display extreme events. The mechanism responsible for the rare, largest events makes them distinct and their distribution deviates from a power-law. Based on this mechanism identification, we show that it is possible to forecast in real time an impending extreme event. Once forecasted, we also show that extreme events can be suppressed by applying tiny perturbations to the system. Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, plus supplementary material with additional figures, details and references. This version contains more details about the statistical hypothesis test
Databáze:	arXiv
Externí odkaz:	http://arxiv.org/abs/1301.0244 Zobrazit plný text záznamu View this record from Arxiv