Mirror-time diffusion discount model of options pricing

Autor:	Levin, Pavel
Rok vydání:	2008
Předmět:	Quantitative Finance - Pricing of Securities Nonlinear Sciences - Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems Nonlinear Sciences - Exactly Solvable and Integrable Systems Physics - Physics and Society
Druh dokumentu:	Working Paper
Popis:	The proposed model modifies option pricing formulas for the basic case of log-normal probability distribution providing correspondence to formulated criteria of efficiency and completeness. The model is self-calibrating by historic volatility data; it maintains the constant expected value at maturity of the hedged instantaneously self-financing portfolio. The payoff variance dependent on random stock price at maturity obtained under an equivalent martingale measure is taken as a condition for introduced "mirror-time" derivative diffusion discount process. Introduced ksi-return distribution, correspondent to the found general solution of backward drift-diffusion equation and normalized by theoretical diffusion coefficient, does not contain so-called "long tails" and unbiased for considered 2004-2007 S&P 100 index data. The model theoretically yields skews correspondent to practical term structure for interest rate derivatives. The method allows increasing the number of asset price probability distribution parameters. Comment: 22 pages, 3 figures
Databáze:	arXiv
Externí odkaz:	http://arxiv.org/abs/0802.3679 Zobrazit plný text záznamu View this record from Arxiv