Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure
Autor: | Voors, Adriaan A., Ouwerkerk, Wouter, Zannad, Faiez, van Veldhuisen, Dirk J., Samani, Nilesh J., Ponikowski, Piotr, Ng, Leong L., Metra, Marco, ter Maaten, Jozine M., Lang, Chim C., Hillege, Hans L., van der Harst, Pim, Filippatos, Gerasimos, Dickstein, Kenneth, Cleland, John G.F., Anker, Stefan D., Zwinderman, Aeilko H. |
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Přispěvatelé: | Graduate School, Epidemiology and Data Science, Dermatology, APH - Methodology, ACS - Amsterdam Cardiovascular Sciences, Cardiovascular Centre (CVC), Life Course Epidemiology (LCE), Groningen Kidney Center (GKC) |
Rok vydání: | 2016 |
Předmět: |
Male
ACUTE MYOCARDIAL-INFARCTION CLINICAL-OUTCOMES Left DIAGNOSIS Heart failure hospitalization Risk Assessment Ventricular Function Left READMISSION Prediction model Predictive Value of Tests Risk Factors Ventricular Function Humans Heart failure Mortality Aged Europe Female Heart Failure Hospital Mortality Hospitalization Prognosis Prospective Studies Survival Rate Program Development Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine ASSOCIATION HFA RISK PREDICTION R1 EUROPEAN-SOCIETY SURVIVAL HIGH-DENSITY-LIPOPROTEIN TASK-FORCE |
Zdroj: | European journal of heart failure, 19(5), 627-634. Wiley-Blackwell European Journal of Heart Failure, 19(5), 627-634. Wiley |
ISSN: | 1879-0844 1388-9842 |
Popis: | Introduction: \ud \ud From a prospective multicentre multicountry clinical trial, we developed and validated risk models to predict prospective all-cause mortality and hospitalizations because of heart failure (HF) in patients with HF.\ud Methods and results: \ud \ud BIOSTAT-CHF is a research programme designed to develop and externally validate risk models to predict all-cause mortality and HF hospitalizations. The index cohort consisted of 2516 patients with HF from 69 centres in 11 European countries. The external validation cohort consisted of 1738 comparable patients from six centres in Scotland, UK. Patients from the index cohort had a mean age of 69 years, 27% were female, 83% were in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II–III and the mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 31%. The full prediction models for mortality, hospitalization owing to HF, and the combined outcome, yielded c-statistic values of 0.73, 0.69, and 0.71, respectively. Predictors of mortality and hospitalization owing to HF were remarkably different. The five strongest predictors of mortality were more advanced age, higher blood urea nitrogen and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, lower haemoglobin, and failure to prescribe a beta-blocker. The five strongest predictors of hospitalization owing to HF were more advanced age, previous hospitalization owing to HF, presence of oedema, lower systolic blood pressure and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. Patients from the validation cohort were aged 74 years, 34% were female, 85% were in NYHA class II–III, and mean LVEF was 41%; c-statistic values for the full and compact model were comparable to the index cohort.\ud Conclusion: \ud \ud A small number of variables, which are usually readily available in the routine clinical setting, provide useful prognostic information for patients with HF. Predictors of mortality were remarkably different from predictors of hospitalization owing to HF. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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