Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects

Autor: Grewe, Volker, Gangoli, Arvind Rao, Gronstedt, Tomas, Xisto, Carlos, Linke, Florian, Melkert, Joris, Middel, J., Ohlenforst, Barbara, Blakey, Simon, Christie, Simon, Matthes, Sigrun, Dahlmann, Katrin
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: Nature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
Nature Communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Popis: Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society’s mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO2 and non-CO2 effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation’s climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.
Aviation contributes to climate change and ways to reduce its emissions are widely debated. Here, the authors assess the effects of technology improvements and the use of sustainable aviation fuels and find that even when these are considered aviation is unlikely to meet emissions goals in line with the Paris Agreement.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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