Modelling land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon: temporal changes in drivers and calibration issues

Autor: Rosa, Isabel M. D., Purves, Drew, Carreiras, João M. B., Ewers, Robert M.
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2014
Předmět:
Zdroj: Regional Environmental Change
ISSN: 1436-378X
1436-3798
Popis: Land cover change (LCC) models are used in many studies of human impacts on the environment, but knowing how well these models predict observed changes in the landscape is a challenge. We used nearly three decades of LCC maps to run several LCC simulations to: (1) determine which parameters associated with drivers of LCC (e.g. roads) get selected for which transition (forest to deforested, regeneration to deforested or deforested to regeneration); (2) investigate how the parameter values vary through time with respect to the different activities (e.g. farming); and (3) quantify the influence of choosing a particular time period for model calibration and validation on the performance of LCC models. We found that deforestation of primary forests tends to occur along roads (included in 95 % of models) and outside protected areas (included in all models), reflecting farming establishment. Regeneration tends to occur far from roads (included in 78 % of the models) and inside protected areas (included in 38 % of the models), reflecting the processes of land abandonment. Our temporal analysis of model parameters revealed a degree of variation through time (e.g. effectiveness of protected areas rose by 73 %, p
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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