Modelling historical changes in the force-of-infection of Chagas disease to inform control and elimination programmes: application in Colombia

Autor: Cucunubá, Zulma M, Nouvellet, Pierre, Conteh, Lesong, Vera, Mauricio Javier, Angulo, Victor Manuel, Dib, Juan Carlos, Parra -Henao, Gabriel Jaime, Basáñez, María Gloria
Přispěvatelé: Medical Research Council (MRC)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Zdroj: BMJ Global Health
ISSN: 2059-7908
Popis: Background WHO's 2020 milestones for Chagas disease include having all endemic Latin American countries certified with no intradomiciliary Trypanosoma cruzi transmission, and infected patients under care. Evaluating the variation in historical exposure to infection is crucial for assessing progress and for understanding the priorities to achieve these milestones.\ud \ud Methods Focusing on Colombia, all the available age-structured serological surveys (undertaken between 1995 and 2014) were searched and compiled. A total of 109 serosurveys were found, comprising 83 742 individuals from rural (indigenous and non-indigenous) and urban settings in 14 (out of 32) administrative units (departments). Estimates of the force-of-infection (FoI) were obtained by fitting and comparing three catalytic models using Bayesian methods to reconstruct temporal and spatial patterns over the course of three decades (between 1984 and 2014).\ud \ud Results Significant downward changes in the FoI were identified over the course of the three decades, and in some specific locations the predicted current seroprevalence in children aged 0–5 years is
Databáze: OpenAIRE