| Autor: |
Alejandro Ivan, Aguirre-Salado, Humberto, Vaquera-Huerta, Carlos Arturo, Aguirre-Salado, Silvia, Reyes-Mora, Ana Delia, Olvera-Cervantes, Guillermo Arturo, Lancho-Romero, Carlos, Soubervielle-Montalvo |
| Rok vydání: |
2017 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health |
| ISSN: |
1660-4601 |
| Popis: |
We implemented a spatial model for analysing PM 10 maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995-2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the PM 10 maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model's performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the PM 10 maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the PM 10 maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of PM 10 maxima presenting levels above 1000 μ g/m 3 (return period: 25 yr) was observed in the northwestern region of the study area. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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