| Popis: |
Microcomputer-based population projection software packages were evaluated to determine if all the programs would yield similar results if tested on the same set of data. These included the PROJ5 from Microcomputer Program for Demographic Analysis, converted for microcomputers by Westinghouse; the FIVFIV/SINSIN from The Population Council; the PROJPC-II, developed by Kenneth Hill for the World Bank; and CELADE, developed by Centro Latinamericano de Demographia (CELADE), a Spanish microcomputer version of the population projection program of the United Nations. These were all modified from mainframe programs. The DEMPROJ, developed by the RAPID2 project at the The Futures Group, and ESCAP/POP, developed by the Population Division of the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) were both specifically developed for microcomputers. A standard set of criteria covering hardware and software and requirements, methodology, projection results, and summary demographic indicators in the output are used in the evaluation. Table 1 gives hardware and software requirements. All the programs can be used on IBM or compatable micros. Table 2 gives data input requirements, which vary widely. All 6 programs use a cohort-component projection, although there is a wide variety in application of methodology. Programs and data sets produced similar results, and choice of a system should based on intended use. Appendices list programs and addresses for obtaining copies as well as other kinds of software available for demogrphic analysis and their sources. |
