| Popis: |
A fellow at the American Enterprise Institute remarked that population growth slowed from 1.73% to 1.57% during 1990 to 1994. In Eastern Europe alone population declined by 1 million in the past 4 years. Fertility decline is evident even in Africa and a rapid fertility transition has appeared in Iran. The data are based on figures recently generated by the UN and published in "World Population Prospects: 1994 revision." The projected medium fertility variant was 9.8 billion by 2050 and 10 billion in 2054. UN statisticians have reported that the real numbers are likely to be even higher despite their own reports of fertility decline. The UN believes that sustaining 2.1 children per woman at replacement level will not be allowed by countries. The more developed countries are now at or below replacement: Japan at 1.5, Korea at 1.7, Germany at 1.3, and Italians at 1.3. Large population numbers threaten stability and are related to famine, pollution, war, and animal and plant species decimation. The evidence from Rwanda and Bosnia is clear. A more desirable and realistic estimate should be 7-8 billion by 2050. World population in preparation for the International Conference on Population and Development is being publicized as a problem so that the UN and environmentalists can increase their funding and attain a high spot on the global agenda. The author's experience as part of the US delegation to the International Population Conference in Mexico City in 1984 led to the conclusion that these international policy conferences are really public relations events. Gloom and doom predictions are constantly being modified; for instance, what was the "coming ice age" is now "global warming." The world has survived thus far, while the numbers have been increasing. If the world does not prosper in the years ahead, it is unlikely to be due to too many people. |
