Projected long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hepatitis C outcomes in the United States: a modelling study
| Autor: | Barocas, Joshua A, Savinkina, Alexandra, Lodi, Sara, Epstein, Rachel L, Bouton, Tara C, Sperring, Heather, Hsu, Heather E, Jacobson, Karen R, Schechter-Perkins, Elissa M, Linas, Benjamin P, White, Laura F |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Clinical Infectious Diseases: An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America |
| ISSN: | 1537-6591 1058-4838 |
| Popis: | Background The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted access to and uptake of hepatitis C (HCV) care services in the U.S. It is unknown how substantially the pandemic will impact long-term HCV-related outcomes. Methods We used a microsimulation to estimate the 10-year impact of COVID-19 disruptions in healthcare delivery on HCV outcomes including identified infections, linkage to care, treatment initiation and completion, cirrhosis, and liver-related death. We modeled hypothetical scenarios consisting of an 18-month pandemic-related disruption in HCV care starting in March 2020 followed by varying returns to pre-pandemic rates of screening, linkage, and treatment through March 2030 and compared them to a counterfactual scenario in which there was no COVID-19 pandemic or disruptions in care. We also performed alternate scenario analyses in which the pandemic disruption lasted for 12- and 24-months. Results Compared to the ‘no pandemic’ scenario, in the scenario in which there is no return to pre-pandemic levels of HCV care delivery, we estimate 1,060 fewer identified cases, 21 additional cases of cirrhosis, and 16 additional liver-related deaths per 100,000 people. Only 3% of identified cases initiate treatment and |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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