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The aim of this paper is to measure the role of social inuence in transport mode switch to cycling. We propose an original approach to measure in the context of a natural experiment the inuence of social factors on individual intentions within the theory of interpersonal behaviour, by modelling explicitly the diusion of cycling within the population. We consider the time period following the end of the rst COVID-19- lockdown in May 2020 in Paris, France, and estimate a simple model of social imitation based on data from the City of Paris' Open Data initiative, integrating also in our estimation geographical and temporal xed-eects, as well as controls for the level of precipitation. We nd that the increasing adoption of cycling between May and July 2020 can indeed be explained as the result of a new social dynamic tending to increase the switching rate between transport modes. |
